Being in a seasonal business can mean one of three things:
- Your business is seasonal catering to a defined seasonal market. Summer amusement parks fall into this category.
- Your business is located in a seasonal market, but isn’t generally considered seasonal. Grocery stores that cater to local residents, but see an increase in sales during tourism seasons share this category.
- Your industry is considered seasonal. Many retail businesses fall into this segment, with high holiday and back-to-school selling seasons.
Regardless of your category, great marketing helps you either broaden your season length, or create additional seasons. For instance, some category 1 B&Bs previously known only as for summer destinations have successfully positioned themselves as off-season resorts in addition to their regular high season. By advertising these new selling propositions to both standard clientele and new customers looking for different or more cost-effective vacation experiences, these B&Bs have effectively created a second sales season that didn’t exist several years ago.
When in a category 3 business with a seasonal selling cycle, it’s important to stay abreast of ever-changing consumer trends to ensure that what has traditionally been your key selling season hasn’t changed the game. The auto industry is a great example of how consumer shopping patterns have shifted just within a two-year time period.
Take a look at the table below from the US Census, which tracks retail sales by category every year. In 2010, two years after the recession hit high gear, auto sales by auto dealers were highest in December as consumers waited for late year models to go on sale.
Percentage of Auto Sales by Auto Dealers in 2010
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
7.3% |
7.2% |
8.4% |
8.3% |
8.5% |
8.4% |
| Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
8.4% |
8.5% |
8.1% |
8.3% |
8.6% |
10.2% |
Sales in December were 2-3 points higher than any other time of the year with January and February being the off season. Traditional car advertising followed this pattern, tending to run heavier during the holiday seasons and staying low during the early winter months.
But, buying patterns have changed and if a car dealer today is still buying advertising based on the 2010 model, they would be missing a significant amount of 2012 buyers, who are far more consistent in buying cars throughout the year. Check out the buying patterns for 2012 below.
Percentage of Auto Sales by Auto Dealers in 2012
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
8.0% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
| Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
8.2% |
8.4% |
8.6% |
8.4% |
8.7% |
8.8% |
This new data set shows that consumers are actively buying cars all year long with December still being a key buying month, but no one group of months being significantly different from the others. What was once a semi-seasonal business has evened out.
What this means is advertisers not adjusting their media plans to attract consumers all year long are missing those consumers who are actively in the market at any point in time. The data is available from the government for most key industrial codes.
The Walk-away: Assumptions made about key selling times of the year can cause businesses to unnecessarily miss key selling opportunities. The recent past is not always a good indication of current or future buying trends.
SOURCE: Monthly Retail and Food Service Sales, 2012 Sales, census data, http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/mrtssales92-present.xls
Rhona Bronson 